NHL Free Agency: A.J. Greer's Potential Impact on the Canadiens
The Montreal Canadiens made waves in the 2026 NHL Playoffs, and now they must ensure their upward trajectory continues. This includes analyzing every available free agent, including A.J. Greer, who is expected to become a free agent after the Florida Panthers let him walk. While Greer is not a free agent yet, his Quebec native status and scoring prowess, coupled with a career-best season, will surely pique Montreal's interest.
Greer's 2025-26 season was a standout, almost doubling his point totals from the previous year. The 29-year-old left-winger scored 17 goals and 15 assists in 78 games, a significant step forward for a player who was never considered a reliable source of secondary and tertiary offense. This improvement is always a positive factor, but the key question is whether it was a flash in the pan or a sustainable trend.
Greer's production alongside various centers, including Sam Bennett, Evan Rodrigues, Carter Verhaeghe, and Eetu Luostarinen, tells the tale of his season. While he played poorly, he capitalized on an opportunity to play with skilled players, improving his production rate considerably. However, when analyzing his potential impact with the Canadiens, we must acknowledge that he is unlikely to play on the first line with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield.
Greer's underlying numbers were quite encouraging, regardless of where he played. His shot share (CF%) and expected goal share (xGF%) were well above average, suggesting his impact went beyond just his elevated production. This suggests that Greer will command a salary similar to the deal offered to former Hab Michael McCarron, who signed a six-year deal with the Minnesota Wild for $3.33 million annually.
However, the risk is that teams will become so infatuated with Greer's improved production that they'll ignore his inflated shooting percentage and usage by the Panthers throughout the year. While Greer is not a bad player, the numbers tell us that last season was more of an outlier than a sign of things to come. The saving grace could be his style of play, as he loves to score on second-chance opportunities, wraparounds, and rebounds, the type of hard-working goals that Canadiens head coach Martin St-Louis loves to see.
When evaluating his scoring plays in the last two seasons, Greer stands out as a similar player to Brendan Gallagher in his prime, though with a much lower scoring rate and a sturdier frame. While his production may not be sustainable, his underlying numbers and style of play could make him a valuable addition to the Canadiens, especially if they can secure a deal in the $4 million AAV range.
In my opinion, the Canadiens should take a chance on Greer, as his style of play and underlying numbers suggest he could be a valuable addition to the team. While his production may not be sustainable, his ability to score on second-chance opportunities and his hard-working style could make him a key contributor to the team's success.
